Looking into a crystal ball is always a risky way to make a living. But I’ve enjoyed doing it in the medical marketplace and healthcare delivery system since the 1970s. I’m probably batting around .800—one strike-out for every four hits in looking 2-5 years ahead. Most of the major changes I foresaw happening (or not happening) ultimately happened (or didn’t). My biggest problem has been timing. When things changed as I’d foretold, they tended to happen more slowly than I projected. This reinforces the perception that incrementalism is part of American exceptionalism. The U.S. changes at a slower pace than ...