The off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey caught the attention of everyone who follows U.S. politics. Republicans hope the momentum they gained will carry them through to further victories in next year’s midterm elections. But are those expectations realistic?

Though most pundits point to Virginia as a precursor to what could become a strong Republican 2022 midterm election, with first-time candidate Glenn Youngkin (R) defeating ex-Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), another angle also needs attention.

In actuality, the New Jersey gubernatorial race in which incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) narrowly defeated businessman and ex-state legislator Jack Ciattarelli (R) may serve ...