While final results are still coming in, a preliminary election analysis gives insights on the landscape of the 119th U.S. Congress and the incoming second Trump administration.
Heading into the election, it appeared that either party still had the opportunity to score a legislative trifecta – winning the Presidency, Senate and House. At the time of this writing, it appears the Republicans may have achieved this feat, with control of the White House and Senate confirmed with several House races still too close to call.
Former President Donald Trump (R) defeated Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in the 2024 presidential election. The president-elect performed better than predicted in the battleground states and posted his best numbers of his three presidential runs in most states. Trump is in a position to carry the popular vote, currently holding a 51.2% advantage over Harris’ 48.0%, a margin of approximately six million votes. Trump retained all 25 states that voted for him in both 2016 and 2020. He held his weakest state, North Carolina, and then converted Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Still outstanding are Arizona and Nevada, and Trump leads in each of those states.
As expected, Republicans took the Senate majority away from the Democrats and it appears the total could potentially hit 54 seats, but more likely 52 and possibly 53. The states that flipped from Democrat to Republican included Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The Nevada race remains too close to call.
The House majority remains undecided, but Republicans appear to stand a good chance of retaining a slim majority. It could be several days or weeks before we see the final results. It appears the two sides may trade approximately eight seats that each party currently holds. Current trends suggest that Republicans will maintain control with potentially a similar sized majority to the current five-seat split.
While it’s still too early to get the complete picture of voter turnout, initial reports indicate that more than 140 million Americans cast their ballots in the 2024 election, representing 64.5% of eligible voters. This turnout is slightly lower than the record-breaking 66.6% seen in the 2020 election, but it still represents a significant level of voter engagement.
Some items may have changed by the time this reaches your inbox – be sure to check reliable sources of election data for the most up-to-date information on the remaining races.
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