Episode 58 – A View from the Hill

Welcome to the TRSA podcast. Providing interviews and insights from the linen, uniform, and facility services industry. Most Americans might not realize it, but they benefit at least once per week from the cleanliness and safety of laundered, reusable linens, uniforms, towels, mats, and other products provided by various businesses and organizations. TRSA represents the companies that supply, launder, and maintain linens and uniforms. And in this podcast, we will bring the thought leaders of the industry to you.

 

Thanks for joining us today for another episode of the Linen Uniform and Facility Services podcast interviews and insights by TRSA. I’m your host, Jason Risley. After tackling the topic of trends in health care during the last episode of the podcast, we’re going to turn our attention to one of the most critical roles that TRSA plays on behalf of the industry, advocacy and government relations. T RSA recently hosted its 13th annual legislative conference in Washington DC, where executives from member companies had the opportunity to meet with members of congress and their staff to discuss issues of importance to the linen, uniform, and facility services industry. Thanks to everybody that made it to the event in DC to advocate on behalf of the industry as well as celebrate the best and brightest in the industry at the annual awards dinner.

 

In addition to the Hill Day meetings and annual awards dinner, TRSA members also receive briefings on the current political climate with an eye on the 2024 presidential election from speakers such as keynoter and political analyst Bob Cusack, the editor in chief of The Hill Newspaper. Cusack has covered policy and politics in DC for more than 15 years. He regularly appears as a political analyst on Fox, CNN, C SPAN, MSNBC, ABC, as well as Focus Washington with Chuck Conkoni. On today’s episode of the podcast, Cusack shares his insights on what to expect in Washington in 2023, as well as what will shape the discourse as we move toward the 2024 presidential election. I wanna first say it’s great to be back.

 

COVID has been tough on so many of us personally, professionally, but to be back in person, there’s no substitute for it. And I’m sure it’s affected your businesses substantially. Certainly had a had a big big impact on on the news business. As far as what’s gonna happen in 2023, the agenda after the 2022 election, is significantly smaller because Democrats in the last congress had everything. They had the house, they had the senate, and the White House.

 

Now they did lose the house even though it wasn’t the red wave. And, of course, this is an interesting week, for politics because, former president Trump is likely to be indicted, I think, on more than one issue, but we could see New York go first. So Trump is very busy. He’s obviously launched his presidential campaign. He wasn’t as busy last year.

 

1 year ago this week, I got a call from a number I didn’t recognize, and, of course, on my cell phone, I I do what we all do, and I didn’t answer it. And it was, you know, back in the day, you just answered the phone, now you don’t. Well, then I got a message that, former president Trump would like to talk with you, Bob, and I can patch you through once you call me back. And I half thought, is this one of my friends kind of messing with me? And I’m like, oh, let me call the number back.

 

And I’ve interviewed Trump 4 times when he was a candidate, then our White House team took over when he was president. So I do know him. He was upset about a story we ran over the weekend. So, again, he he he had too much time on his hands last year. He was itching to get back in the political arena, and we had a 12 minute conversation.

 

The first 6 minutes were kinda stream of consciousness where he’s talking about his polls and of how he would handle Putin and Ukraine. And then eventually, we got around to him expressing his displeasure with our story, which was not wrong, but I said, mister president, if you wanna take a swing at us then take a swing at us and I’ll write that up but but the story is right. So we do get read a lot. We have, a 100,000,000 hits per month, 30,000,000 uniques per month. As far as what to look for now, I don’t think much is gonna happen.

 

The the biggest issue you see some farm bill permitting reform, which is energy, small ball oversight of China, oversight of the Biden administration, including Hunter Biden. That’s gonna be an ongoing theme. That’s a big thing that house Republicans have right now. They have the oversight power. Even though they didn’t get the red wave that they were hoping for, they did claim the chamber, the lower chamber.

 

And that’s significant because Democrats weren’t holding hearings on the border or crime or that kind of stuff. So we’re gonna see more of that. We’ve already seen some of it. There is a new committee on oversight of China. That’s a bipartisan committee in the house.

 

So you don’t see a lot of bipartisanship going on right now, but, with China and its threat to United States and its, close relationship getting closer with Russia, there is and, of course, we wanna find out the origin of COVID, which we we may never find. But the biggest thing for 2023 is a debt limit. That’s gotta be raised this time, this summer at some point. I think it’s gonna be very difficult. There’s gonna be the markets are already rattled by this.

 

I talk a lot of people on Wall Street. They are fearing that house Republicans and senate Democrats are not gonna be able to get along, and they’re not gonna be able to raise the debt ceiling. House Republicans have a simple message. They want Biden to come to negotiation table. We’ll raise the debt ceiling if you come to the table and give us some concessions.

 

The democrats are saying, well, we’ve raised the debt limit something like 68 times in recent history on a clean level with no strings attached. So democrats don’t want any strings attached. The debt limit, of course, is at its all time high after COVID. I do think there there’s the debt limit will be raised somehow, some way. There will be drama.

 

There is an inside baseball thing called the discharge petition where you can actually force a vote on the house floor. So Democrats are planning to introduce a bill, and they will need 218 rep 218 members to force a vote over Kevin McCarthy’s wishes, but you need about a handful of Republicans to sign on to that. And that is that is one way it could be done. Otherwise, though, this is something that’s gonna have to get through the senate on a bipartisan vote. So you’re gonna need 60, not 50, and that’s gonna be very, very difficult to do.

 

The government shutdown, I think, is is more likely than a default. The biggest issue in that area remember, that’s not in the summer. That’s at the end of the fiscal year, so that’s a fall issue. House Republicans are adamant about retracting the inflation reduction act provision on expanding the IRS, which would add significant amount of IRS, employees. Democrats obviously don’t wanna get that done, because they think it saves money and they wanna go after the wealthy.

 

Republicans say they’re gonna go after the middle class with a with an empowered IRS. And Republicans think that’s a winning message because who likes the IRS? So but it’s all about 2024. It’s angling. You see Joe Biden in the state of the union address, talked about Medicare, talked about Social Security.

 

That’s not gonna be done. At some point, the parties are gonna have to come together because Medicare and Social Security are going bankrupt, but Republicans know they don’t have the power to get it done by themselves in the mid 19 nineties, even in the battles between Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton. They passed the balance budget act 1997, and that actually extended the life of Medicare and balance the budget. Though, that was an entirely different era, and I don’t see that happening anytime soon. So I I think a government shutdown could happen.

 

That’s happened a lot. That doesn’t really rattle the markets, but the the default is. And, really, when you think about it, last year, Biden had a tough run from the summer of 2021 until basically the summer of 20 22. And I think part of that was because the left wanted so much. But remember, democrats had small majorities.

 

They couldn’t get back. They couldn’t pass bill back better. So they had to scale it back, and they had to pass the inflation reduction act. But they also passed the chips bill, which was aimed at China. They they passed, a gay marriage measure in the wake of the supreme court leak on abortion.

 

The electoral count bill which clarified that the vice president after the January 6th attacks cannot affect presidential elections. So there was a string of bills that surprisingly happened in in spring summer of 2022, And I think Republicans got a little too cocky. I think they let a lot of these bills through, before the election. The gay marriage one was after the election, but they thought there was gonna be this big red wave, but Trump was attracting headlines, and and polls did show that voters believe that the biggest loser of the midterm election was Trump. Trump had a rough 2022, but every time you count him out, he comes back.

 

And right now in the polls, he’s doing very well against DeSantis. So I think everything that the parties are gonna be doing is gonna be about next year. As I said, you know, Republicans, some most, like Trump, but not as many as they used to be after January 6th. Democrats have their own issues. The left is is not happy with Biden.

 

They see him moving a little bit more to the center. He went to the border after Republicans won the house. That is not that’s just not a coincidence. He did that. Probably should have done it earlier, and I don’t know why he hasn’t gone to East Palestine, Ohio.

 

I I think it’s important for the president to show up when there’s a disaster, and I think that’s a matter of time. But I think he’s waited too long. I think he waited too long on the border along with VP Harris. So, you know, the left and Biden are getting along. Why?

 

Because they did better than expected in 2022. They kept the senate, narrowly. They lost the house narrowly. I thought it was gonna be, closer to, 25, 30 seats in the house, and, they barely got it. So that was a good election for democrats because, again, it’s all based on expectation.

 

Trump versus McConnell, this is something political reporters love. The these 2 hate each other. Trump calls McConnell not affectionately an old crow every chance he gets. McConnell is, now, well, he was in the hospital because he had a fall. So that is a lot of speculation of when he’s gonna come back.

 

We don’t know when he’s gonna come back to the senate. We don’t know who’s, potentially gonna replace him, at some point. But like Pelosi, at some point, senate Republicans will have to move on like house Democrats have moved on from from Nancy Pelosi. The biggest thing to watch is the Trump candidates versus establishment candidates. In Georgia, Herschel Walker was basically handpicked, to run last year against senator Warnock.

 

He was one of the worst candidates we’ve seen. He just had too much baggage. He didn’t handle the press very well, and he really lost a race that he should’ve that Republican should’ve won. McConnell is not gonna let that happen again. So there’s gonna be a battle of who they’re recruiting to run-in key states such as Montana and Ohio as well as West Virginia.

 

The GOP is also divided on Ukraine. Ron DeSantis, recently called that a territorial dispute, and Republicans, certainly hawkish Republicans in congress are saying, no. No. No. It’s more than a territorial dispute.

 

It is imperative that that Ukraine defeats Russia in the war. Both parties, you know, whether it’s the senate and the house, small majority, so they really can’t do much. I think house Republicans are gonna struggle to to pass a budget, and that’s gonna be a big factor in the debt limit because Democrats are saying, okay. You wanna cut? Well, show us your cuts.

 

Well, we haven’t seen their cuts yet. And if they can’t pass a budget resolution, that’s the first step to passing appropriations bills. So unless they can get and no democrat’s gonna vote for a budget. That never happens. It’s always a a shirts and skins issue.

 

So, if you have 5 or 6 Republicans who vote the other way, and we saw that with the speaker vote, well, it’s gonna be very, very difficult to pass anything. And if anything is gonna pass, it’s gotta pass probably this year. I don’t think you’re gonna see a lot a a lot of legislation move in a presidential election here. Speaker McCarthy had a very difficult time becoming speaker, but he got there. That was, I think 14, 15 votes.

 

The problem is for him, he had to give away a lot, of the farm. He had to say, okay. One member can go to the floor, and if they don’t like what I’m doing of the of the majority party, and he’s got a lot of critics in the majority party who made that speaker vote very difficult, that member can seek to oust McCarthy, and we can have another type of go round of who’s gonna be the speaker. So I I don’t think it’s gonna happen anytime soon, but if Republicans and likely they will be because any type you have a deal, there’s always somebody upset, whether it’s on the government shutdown or the debt limit or energy legislation. It’s it’s going to be difficult for him to avoid at least a vote of no confidence.

 

Democrats also adjusting to the the post Pelosi era. She’s in congress, Hakeem Jeffries. He’s regarded as an up and comer, and, it’s always nice when they when they call him young because I was born on the exact same day as he was, so I always like that. In in political terms, he is young as is Nikki Haley, even though what Don Lemon said was baffling. Jeffries and Pelosi have voted 200 times in the house this year.

 

They have not differed on one vote. That is not a coincidence. They they wanna keep they you know, Pelosi I remember covering the Obama administration. Pelosi got pretty upset at various times at the Obama White House, but she did a great job of keeping it out of the press. Not all the time, because she knew there was no political advantage to have to have people see daylight between Obama and Pelosi.

 

Like, when Obama was in his 1st year, he said, okay. Let’s do health care right out of the bat. And Nancy Pelosi said, uh-uh. We’re doing climate change. They did climate change.

 

Passed the house, didn’t pass the senate. Of Of course, they did get health care through after that, though that was a a massive struggle. Now for a brief message from TRSA. Hey. It’s Melissa Furman, and I’m excited to serve as the keynote speaker at the TRSA Production Summit and Plant Tour at the Kansas City Marriott in Downtown Kansas City on May 10th.

 

After 15 plus years in academia as a dean and a professor, I started my own business called Career Potential to bring knowledge and expertise outside the classroom into the streets of the real world. As plant managers and executives, you see firsthand the continuous struggle with recruiting and retaining employees, especially good employees. During my keynote, I plan to offer solutions on how to retain your production employees by investing in the development of your supervisors and managers. Because after all, they say good employees don’t leave bad organizations. They leave what?

 

Bad managers. So we will be addressing the challenges of modern day management with topics such as burnout, constant change management, and trying to manage a diverse workforce, just to name a few. I’ll be providing specific strategies that can be implemented right away to help managers with things like self awareness, coaching, change management, and emotional intelligence. So get ready. I’m gonna challenge your thinking, and I’m gonna engage you in some self reflection exercises to help you identify ways to maximize the success of your organization.

 

So I wish you safe travels, and I look forward to seeing you and engaging with you at the summit. Now back to the episode. McCarthy has done pretty well, I think. So far, he’s, he’s put Democrats on defense on crime. There’s a DC crime bill that passed the house and senate that the left certainly didn’t like.

 

They don’t like, congress getting involved in DC’s laws, but the the bill was seen as way too soft on crime. So Biden flip flopped and he said he’ll sign it because the the bill is on his desk and that’s just a matter of time, before he signs. I don’t think he signed it yet, but he will. Good signs for, as far as the house is concerned, centrist in the house, they there’s a rule in the house that you can’t basically, become a committee chair or ranking member, unless you seek a vote. So seniority is so important.

 

So a lot of Democrats look to move on. They they don’t wanna wait, 30 years for the ranking member or the committee chairman to die. So they they run for and they do it more than than Republicans who have more term limits in the house as far as being, top committee chairs. So there are a number of centrist who were have gotten into senate races. Those are gonna be tough.

 

They’re gonna be tough districts for democrats to hold. But, again, it’s a toss-up. This is a this is an election which is very exciting because the White House, the house, and the senate are all up for grabs. Usually, in presidential election years, the house or senate, plus the White House up for grabs, This one is very different. So it will be very costly.

 

This will be the the most money ever invested in a in a political cycle by far. The senate, senate democrats did well, again, helped by the emergence of, Trump being in the headlines. Trump is great for for an endorsement in a primary, but, Glenn Youngkin, my home state of Virginia, he won he kinda courted Trump in the primary, but then once he won that, he didn’t he didn’t ask Trump to campaign for him in the general. It was a good move. Young can beat Terry McAuliffe, the democrat.

 

So the the map is friendly for the republican party this time. 23 dems are up. 11 for republicans. They really don’t have to worry about losing those seats. Mitt Romney is thinking about running for reelection.

 

He will get challenged if he does, but but the challenge is more, of course, in Utah, you gotta worry about a Republican challenge, not a Democratic challenge. So I don’t see really any of the Republican seats, flipping, but there are a number of seats that could flip. And, if they win the White House, all republicans will need to do is win one seat. If they don’t win the White House, they would just need to win 2. Joe Manchin in West Virginia, he has not said he’s gonna run for for reelection.

 

Joe Manchin is also can he’s not ruled out the possibility of running, for president, and he’s been increasingly critical of president Biden, recently. So they have a good relationship. For some reason, Biden calls Manchin Jojo, which Manchin doesn’t know why he does that, but, but that’s his nickname. Anyway, so they get along but they’re on different planets as far as policy. Now Joe Manchin, I talked to him after interviewed him for c span after he won 6 years ago, roughly 6 years ago, in 2018, and it took a lot out of him.

 

He ran against not the best candidate. He barely won. I don’t know if he can win in that state. That’s a very red state. That’s a Trump friendly state.

 

So I I don’t I’m not sure he’s gonna run. He’s the only democrat that could win in that state, though. Sinema left the Democratic party. Now she’s an independent. She’s in a tough race.

 

That’s not a red state. That’s a purplish state now. Jon Tester is a very good candidate in Montana, but he’s gonna be that’s gonna be a tough race. And Sherrod Brown, who considered running for president last time around, he’s he’s a a liberal in Ohio, but he keeps winning. And that shows you how good of a candidate is because his policies are not too far from from Bernie Sanders.

 

But, again, can Republicans get the candidates they want? When Mitch McConnell was asked, well, why didn’t you win the senate? And he said, something along the lines of candidate viability. So he needs more viable candidates. McConnell’s health, is up in the air.

 

That’s there would be, if McConnell steps down at some point, then it’s it’s a battle between, among 3 Republicans, 3 Johns, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, and John Thune, who’s from South Dakota. Schumer, unlike the others, you know, he’s gonna be around for a long time. He’s got a firm grip on the caucus. And why is control of the senate so important? Well, supreme court.

 

We’ve seen that if if the opposing party has the senate floor, they’re not gonna call for a vote. They block Merrick Garland, and and I and that was within a year of the election as I remember it. But even if it’s within 2 or 3 years, I I do think they’re gonna wait till the next election or the next presidential election. So, Joe Biden could win a second term, but if he loses the senate, which is possible, he could win the presidency but lose the senate. He may not be able to get his nominees through, especially on the Supreme Court.

 

The senate isn’t what used to be, and some really hate it. John Sununu was gonna run last cycle, and he decided not to run probably because so many people have said working in the senate sucks, and he he may run for president. So president is a better job than being a freshman senator. That’s for sure. The 2024 race, it’s gonna be it’s gonna be pretty nasty.

 

The nastiest primary, I think, was between Hillary Clinton and Obama. This is gonna rival it. Trump and DeSantis are clear front runners, but the front runners usually don’t do well. I mean, you ask Jeb Bush that, ask Rudy Giuliani that. Sometimes you don’t wanna be the front runner, though you do get money.

 

Trump’s numbers have gone up recently. Democrats are fearing that this indictment in New York, which seems to be just a matter of time, will actually help him. There are some democrats including Van Jones who was on CNN, he worked in the Obama administration, and he said prosecutors should not start with this New York case which could be as minimal as a misdemeanor unless they do kind of do a unique legal strategy and make it more than a misdemeanor. But they think that the biggest issues should be the Georgia election, the classified documents, a little tricky there because Biden got caught with classified documents, as well as January 6th. So, you know, whether it’s about elections, Georgia, January 6th, they think that’s a bigger thing to start with than hush money for a porn star as DeSantis called it.

 

You know, Pence, he’s gonna run. Christie, I think, will run. Haley’s already in. I interviewed her last year and at that point she said, well, if Trump gets in, I’m not gonna get in. Well, she’s seen some vulnerabilities.

 

She thinks she can take Trump. She changed her mind. Tim Scott, also from South Carolina. I think he’s gonna get in. Pompeo has been critical of Trump.

 

He’s gonna get in. But, again, all those, you know, below the top 2, I mean, they’re basically in single digits now. So they’re gonna have to to make a move. There’s some question mark. Kristi Noem, I think could be a Trump VP candidate.

 

Governor used to to serve in congress. Abbott in Texas, I don’t think he’ll run. Sununu is thinking about it. Youngkin is also doing, a lot of interviews now. He’s been on Fox recently, so it’s led to some speculation that he could also get in the race.

 

The one thing that if you look back to 2004, on the flip side, on the Democratic side, there were 2 front runners. And the 2 front runner runners at that point heading into the Iowa caucus were Richard Gephardt and Howard Dean, and they just they just threw mud at each other the whole time. And what happened? John Kerry slipped in, won Iowa, won New Hampshire, won the nomination. So you’re gonna see a lot of mud going back and forth between Trump and DeSantis.

 

Trump has the baggage. DeSantis, certainly I’ve talked to a number of Trump fans across the country, conservatives who like DeSantis. He won by 19 points, in Florida, but Florida has become more conservative and, partially because of him and his popularity. I do think that DeSantis does there’s gotta be some type of issue where you’ve gotta be likable. I think he’s gotta work on that.

 

We saw that with Hillary Clinton. That’s a big part of the reason she lost. We saw that with Al Gore. We saw that with John Kerry. Trump has a way with a first time interview Trump at Trump Tower, they said you have 15 minutes.

 

We asked tough but fair questions, and he gave us 80 minutes. And that led to other interviews. And so Trump bashes the media very effectively. The most effective, president that has bashed the media as part of his strategy. DeSantis does that well, but but Trump has a way of wooing the media and giving them access.

 

We asked, as I mentioned, we interviewed Trump 4 times in the 2016 election. We asked Hillary Clinton to be interviewed many times. She she didn’t she wouldn’t play ball, and and partially because candidates now can go on Fox or CNN, get friendlier interviews. But Hillary Clinton, after she lost, did admit that that her media strategy was too closed. You can’t be too careful and become president.

 

You know, Barack Obama had to take on the Clinton machine. That was not that was not an easy decision. Initially, he said he wasn’t gonna do it, and then he was urged to do it. He took on the Clinton machine, and he won. But you have to be aggressive.

 

You you can’t just be careful, and too many times, I think, candidates are careful. And you’ve gotta you’ve gotta answer the tough questions, from the press. Okay. Here are the 2 Democrats so far running in 2024. Marianne Williamson, not not a big, threat to to Joe Biden.

 

He’s up by 70 points, but one to watch. He’ll be kind of a thorn in his side. He won’t, I do think he will announce his reelection, relatively soon, but he’s not gonna debate her. However, there’s still a lot of speculation that he won’t run, that he’s too old. He’s obviously the oldest president.

 

Hillary Clinton versus Trump was the oldest general election matchup until Biden versus Trump. Now that was the oldest one, and we could see another, record in 2024. Now if Biden does not, then you got a lot of interesting, scenarios. Vice president Harris, was, I think, a pretty good VP candidate on the campaign trail. Her numbers are not very good now.

 

Democrats are not scared off by her. So if Biden has a health issue, decides to not run, she’s definitely gonna run. But as a presidential candidate, she didn’t make it to Iowa. So, these other candidates that you see up there, they’re not scared of her. And I think, Warren would run, Bernie Sanders would run.

 

I’ve talked to one of his close confidants, and he says, I don’t think he should run, but you can’t stop him, if Biden’s not there. So, Newsom, all these guys, they’re so ambitious. Buttigieg, he’s had a tough run. Republicans have been been hammering him on his Palestine and other issues, FAA issue, in January, but he clearly is is eyeing another run at some point. Klobuchar, who ran last time, governor Whitmer, who who won her reelection.

 

I don’t think Hillary Clinton would run again. I do think Michelle Obama, and this is this is kind of an unpopular prediction, possibly could run if Biden does not because she can’t stand Trump. I think she’s a talented well, she’s not a politician. Maybe that’s that’s why I think she would be good to run. I I just don’t see other than Michelle Obama, I I don’t see I don’t see kind of a a big rising star in that group.

 

A lot of democrats say, well, it’s just simpler if Biden runs. We don’t have to go through a complicated primary, and then maybe we’ll face Trump again and we’ll beat him. But Biden barely beat Trump. I thought Biden would win. I thought he’d win a little easier than he did.

 

And certainly, he’s you know, he doesn’t have the fastball that he had when he was in the senate. He’s I ran into him on a plane about 6 months before he announced his presidential bid, and, you know, he was very much with it. He was flying in coach, so that was a sign he was gonna run. And he didn’t, you know, and and other passengers, and he was getting. And then, you know, since then, he’s just he’s not the same, senator that you’ve not the same person you saw in the senate.

 

He’s just like, my dad’s the same age. He needs a nap every afternoon. Okay? He’s just an older guy. So and and really a lot of Democrats don’t want Biden to run because they fear he’s gonna lose.

 

So maybe the other flip side is, okay, Biden is it’s clear. He’s our guy. He beat Trump. He’s gonna run. Okay?

 

But if he doesn’t run, you have a messy process, but maybe you end up you certainly end up with a younger candidate. Maybe you end up with a better candidate. However, incumbents are always tough to beat, and that’s something something to consider. So what are the big issues that are gonna be on the ballot? Well, abortion’s a big one.

 

You know, Democrats didn’t really have a message until, the supreme court released its decision, then it was abortion. And Republicans are fractured on that because some, like Mike Pence, no exceptions. Others want 15 weeks. Others want to just eliminate 3rd trimester, abortions, which polls show is popular. The media doesn’t really report on that a lot.

 

But, you know, Democrats are more united on that, so that’s gonna be on the ballot. Energy, Republicans talking about, they have HR one is an energy bill. Of course, Democrats are gonna talk about climate change. Crime was a big issue, not so much nationally, but in New York, my home state, they crime was a big issue. Republicans cleaned up, in New York, but crime the crime message in other parts of the country didn’t resonate as much as it did in New York.

 

Of course, the economy is important, inflation, government spending, which is at a record high, and at some point, we’re gonna have to get a a hold on that. I think that’s probably the most important one. If we’re in a recession, that’s gonna be a major problem for the White House. Medicare and Social Security, that will be a talking point, but you’re gonna see no action on it. But but certainly, that resonates with with older voters and unlike younger voters, older voters do vote.

 

Border, immigration, student loans, which is popular, but it’s in the courts now, and I think Biden’s plan on student loans is probably gonna get tossed, so that could hurt them with younger voters. You know, I was just reading an article right before I came on about how the Biden administration wants to get rid of TikTok. And I’m not on TikTok, but our kids are on TikTok, and that could be a major problem for Democrats, that there could be a backlash, if they ban TikTok. And, of course, foreign policy with the the war in Ukraine, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, and and China, becoming closer as I mentioned earlier. That is one to watch.

 

Ukraine bills will move through the congress. I think it will get the support it needs, but at the same time, there’s gonna be a lot of battles over that. And at some point, when you have the debt and you have a lot of foreign aid going out, That’s that’s an issue. DeSantis and Trump. DeSantis is not a fan of Ukraine aid and neither is Trump.

 

You know, Trump was basically impeached over a Ukraine issue the first time. So if one of them becomes president, Trump again, I think the the Ukraine aid could be dicey. 3rd party candidate, I think it’s a real possibility. If it’s Biden versus Trump, 70% of people want a different choice. Joe Manchin could be a possibility.

 

Liz Cheney, who is thinking about running for president, but I don’t think she’d be wise to run-in a republican primary. She just wants to stick it to Trump. You need somebody who has deep pockets like Bloomberg. So someone else who has a lot of money could just emerge out of nowhere, so you need money. You need to get on ballots.

 

And Republicans and Democrats, you know, they they they don’t make it easy for the 3rd party. They don’t want more competition. But I do think there is a lot, there are a lot of independents who don’t want a rematch of Biden, versus Trump. So I do think that could be an interesting development, and there’s a lot of speculation on who would if Manchin ran, you know, who would he help? Would he help Biden or Trump or the Democrat or the Republican?

 

Will she ask okay. So I do think Biden’s gonna run. Trump will be difficult to beat every time he’s counted out. He keeps coming back. He’s now the favorite to win the Republican primary.

 

DeSantis, I thought, a couple months ago, was was the favorite. Polarization is pretty rough. That’s gonna continue. Part of that reason is redistricting where in the house, there are 435 seats up every 2 years. And how many races are there?

 

How many close races out of 435? Maybe 40, 45. So that’s not really democracy. That’s where that’s why a lot of house lawmakers, they worry about a primary more than they worry about the general. Polarization continues.

 

We’re gonna have to deal with, Medicare and Social Security. I’ve talked to some of our younger reporters and they’re thinking, Social Security won’t be there when I retire, and I I think they’re wrong because it would be, political suicide to end those programs. So they’re just gonna have to fix them. Now maybe they’re not as generous as they are now, but you’re not gonna be able to get rid of them, and be elected as as a party. I just don’t think at any point that’s gonna happen.

 

But that’s gonna require some fiscal restraint, which, we have not seen congress do. As I mentioned, 2024 is gonna be a record year for campaigning. Last prediction, expect the unexpected. We saw that, in many presidential races, not not just the October surprise, but, at any point. I I do think the the biggest surprise would be if Biden doesn’t run and, you know, someone comes out of the woodworks like a Michelle Obama and upends the entire race.

 

But I do think it’s gonna be one of those things where, it’s gonna take a lot of twists and turns, especially because what we’re about to see, the indictment of a former president is unprecedented. And will there be a mugshot? He’s gotta be fingerprinted. But will all that help him? I do think that if you’re gonna go after Trump, as a prosecutor, it’s spring or never.

 

You can’t wait until the summer. The summer the debate start, It’s getting too close to the election, too close to the to the Iowa caucus for Republicans. So any of these prosecutors, I thought they might have acted already, but they’re gonna have to act real soon. If you have any comments on today’s show or suggestions for future episodes, send an email to podcasts attrsa.org. That’s podcasts attrsa.org.

 

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